5 Minutes Candlesticks NASDAQ 100
Market gapped up today on better than expected retail sales numbers... As we know, yesterday FOMC announced that they are going to leave the rate unchanged and that inflation is still up... Market reaction was muted at best.. From this we can deduce that market participants have mixed reactions about the economy ahead, bulls are not really in control, neither are bears.. This is what I call a tepid market environment. When market gaps up on better than retail sales in a tepid market environment, logically we should expect it to close the gap..
This is all logical deduction, but we dont base our trading judgement solely on that. We will confirm it with the price action and our indicators... Even from the opening, price showed weakness and a tendency to close the gap... I shorted 1 contract at 1811 to test the market.... A few minutes later, MACD and Stochastics turned down... this gave me further conviction to short another 2 contracts at 1809... And I was prepared to exit if it closes the gap and bounces up.. At 10:10, the gap is closed,, but price still seems weak enough to go futher down... I didn't exit yet... at 10:35 a.m. I finally exited at 1780 when I saw a premature sign of reversal..... profits of $760.
The data today support the idea that economic growth will be moderate. November retail sales were up 1.1%. Ex-autos the gain was 1.0% and ex autos and gasoline, it was up 0.9%. The data represent solid underlying growth. It is just one month of data, but there is no sign that the substantial weakness in housing is having much impact on consumer spending. That great fear of the recession-worriers got no support today.
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